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Tech Brew

Automobiles

Jordyn Grzelewski

emergingtechbrew.com

TBR-Rare Earth minerals audio embed

Add “rare earth minerals” to the list of suddenly inescapable terms, alongside “

That’s because in April, China made these materials subject to export controls in response to new tariffs implemented by the US. Cue 

, which needs rare earth minerals for myriad vital components, from electric motors for EVs and oil pumps to catalytic converters and windshield wipers—and which is almost entirely reliant on China to supply them.

China controls nearly 60% of rare earths mining and nearly 90% of the processing capacity in the world, according to AlixPartners.

“It’s integral to the production of the vehicle,” C.J. Finn, PwC’s US automotive industry leader, told Tech Brew. “The OEMs and the suppliers [are] all very much looking at identifying what alternatives may be available to them.”

But even as the industry looks for near-term solutions to avoid production stoppages, experts say that a long-term fix may be tricky—and largely dependent on politics.

“There’s really no getting away from China in the near term,” Mark Wakefield, global automotive market lead at AlixPartners, said. “Really there has to be a political solution.”

Chinese export restrictions apply to seven rare earth elements (gadolinium, yttrium, and five other elements that end in -ium) and rare earth magnets. Companies that want to export the minerals must apply for licenses, a process that is reportedly slow, complicated, and 

 by a small group of Chinese bureaucrats.

“The application process for export permits for various rare earths by our suppliers, which has been in place since April, is complex and time-consuming—partly due to the collection and provision of a large amount of data,” automotive supplier Bosch said in a statement.

Some of the industries most susceptible to supply chain disruptions due to the restrictions include automotive, consumer electronics, and medical devices, according to an analysis by supply chain risk management software company Everstream Analytics.

Auto industry stakeholders in the US and Europe have been 

, though Everstream so far hasn’t seen signs of major stoppages.

 Bloomberg News that the automaker is struggling with rare earths, saying: “It’s day to day. We have had to shut down factories. It’s hand-to-mouth right now.”

That’s despite China granting temporary export licenses to the suppliers of the top US automakers, 

. Ford reportedly shuttered production at its Chicago Assembly Plant, which produces the Explorer SUV, for a week in May because of the issue.

At a recent automotive tech conference in Michigan, executives at major suppliers, including Aptiv and ZF North America, acknowledged the seriousness of the issue and said they were focused on finding sourcing alternatives outside of China.

Jena Santoro, global lead of research and analytics at Everstream, told Tech Brew that leaders of the industries most affected by the export restrictions are likely awaiting details from recent US-China negotiations.

“All we know is that the two sides…reportedly reached an agreement…but the details were not disclosed of what that agreement entailed,” she said. “There was some ambiguous language that was shared, which is basically that China has agreed to ease the licensing requirements and expedite the licensing to some trusted US companies.”

Expediting license approvals, she said, should speed up a process that currently takes an average of 45 days.

“But we don’t know what, exactly, the new timeframe would be,” she added. “And then we don’t really know what ‘trusted US companies’ means to China, and who will be considered a trusted company or trusted industry and who will not.”

 to source rare earth magnets outside of China and to develop components with less or no rare earth content. Efforts are also underway to establish processing capabilities elsewhere.

But experts say, given the long lead time on such projects, the world will remain reliant on China for rare earth mineral mining and refining for years to come partially due to where these elements naturally occur.

“While some countries have initiatives on the way to increase rare earth mining, refining as well as magnet production, setting up new rare earth supply chains outside of China is going to take time, leaving many companies exposed to further production disruptions for the foreseeable future,” per Everstream’s analysis.

AlixPartners estimates it would take three to five years to establish new refining capacity in other regions, even with strong governmental support.

And regardless of trade negotiations, Santoro said, the issue will remain a challenge because the export controls are expected to stay.

“Negotiations need to take place, and there needs to be some sort of concessions made by the US to entice China or coerce China to allow these exports to take place, because they really have a stronghold on the resources,” she said.

A collage featuring a white SUV and a pile of rare earth minerals

Why auto industry anxiety over rare earth minerals may not dissipate any time soon

Though auto companies are scrambling to avoid near-term production disruptions, experts say the industry will be reliant on China for critical raw materials for years to come.

President Donald Trump has touted his tariff regime as a way to bring back domestic manufacturing jobs—but experts say it’s not that simple.

 on all vehicle imports is that they’ll prompt automakers to invest in US manufacturing, and therefore create new jobs in an industry that has suffered steep job losses over the last few decades.

But a number of factors stand in the way of this vision. Not only would it take years and billions of dollars to build new auto plants in the US, but the industry already struggles to attract the skilled labor it requires—and in recent years has turned to automation to meet its needs.

“Ostensibly, the automotive tariffs are designed to reshore manufacturing, and this, in theory, would lead to more jobs,” Mika Takahashi, a technology analyst at IDTechEx, told Tech Brew via email. “However, the situation is more complicated than that for several reasons.”

One of the major barriers is the time and investment required to move production to the US. Takahashi noted that, given the “significant amount of capital” needed to build new plants, many auto executives are opting to hold off until there’s greater policy certainty.

Swamy Kotagiri, CEO of automotive supplier Magna, 

 at an event in April that the manufacturer’s global footprint was unlikely to change in the near term, emphasizing his view that the industry shouldn’t be reactive.

“Is there a chance in the short to medium term to look at balancing capacities where possible? Yes,” he said. But building a new plant would take about two years, and Magna was not considering any long-term strategy changes at that time.

 that most companies are unlikely to reshore supply chains because of the steep costs of doing so.

, which represents hundreds of thousands of autoworkers in the US, has called on domestic automakers to crank up some of the unused capacity in their US plants. The union recently published a white paper citing industry data indicating that the US auto industry had the capacity to build more than 14.7 million vehicles last year, but ultimately only built 10.2 million.

“We don’t need to break ground on a single new plant to rapidly grow auto manufacturing capacity—it’s already right in front of us, in the plants we've built, the skills of our members, and the communities that depend on these jobs,” UAW President Shawn Fain said in a statement. “Instead of offshoring jobs to low-wage, high-exploitation countries, auto companies must invest here at home and rebuild the middle class with union labor.”

Some experts, however, say it’s not so simple.

“Just because the capacity is there doesn’t mean [it] could be filled,” Sam Fiorani, VP of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, 

 the Detroit Free Press. “Much of the current level of employment in the industry is due to the increased automation, a point that the UAW doesn’t want to acknowledge. It takes fewer people to make a vehicle today.”

Another one of the challenges is the cost of labor, and a lack of skilled labor in a low-unemployment economy.

“US labor remains much higher cost, and it may simply be uneconomical even with tariffs to produce low-cost models in the US,” Takahashi said.

More than a fifth of respondents to CNBC’s survey said that finding skilled labor was a roadblock to reshoring supply chains. More than 80% of respondents said they would use automation more than human workers if they were to boost US manufacturing.

Kotagiri, too, acknowledged this challenge and noted that it was a 

 for the industry at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Over the last 10 years we’ve done a lot in robotic programming, controls, and mechatronics, and [it’s] still not enough for us. And during Covid, when we started having the churn of people, it became a huge issue,” he said. “That is a huge, huge challenge that’s not being talked about.”

Already, factories are heavily automated and employ robotics alongside human workers. A recent survey from QNX found that 30% of respondents in the North American auto industry use robotics in their organization. In 2024, the US auto industry’s installations of industrial robots climbed 10.7%, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Collaborative robots “enable these companies to scale operations more efficiently and cost-effectively, helping bridge the gap between labor shortages and growing production demands,” Takahashi said.

Gene Berdichevsky, co-founder and CEO of 

, told Tech Brew that he doesn’t believe the tariffs will lead to a boom in general assembly manufacturing jobs.

“It’s a joke, and I don’t think anyone in the administration or in the world assumes that we’re going to have Americans screwing together iPhones. That’s not what’s going to happen,” he said. “General assembly will have to be automated if it’s going to reshore.”

Car workers fitting bonnets to cars on production line in car factory. 

Why Trump’s tariffs may not lead to a domestic manufacturing renaissance

“The automotive tariffs are designed to reshore manufacturing,” according to one analyst. “However, the situation is more complicated than that.”

Forget about easing into the new year––come the first full week of January, we’ll be headed to Vegas for CES, the tech industry’s biggest trade show.

The 2025 show runs from January 7–10 and, as usual, the week is jam-packed with keynote speeches, informational sessions, and exhibits on the latest tech innovations. Some of the keynote speakers this year are Delta CEO Ed Bastian, Volvo Group CEO Martin Lundstedt, Accenture CEO Julie Sweet, and Nvidia CEO and founder Jensen Huang.

Tech Brew is sending its transportation reporter to CES this year, so we’ve rounded up some of the mobility tech themes we’ll be keeping an eye on.

Major manufacturers––from Tier 1 automotive suppliers like Continental and Magna to OEMs like Honda and Toyota to industrial equipment bigwigs like John Deere and Caterpillar––will be there.

Hundreds of other exhibitors in the vehicle tech and advanced mobility sector will be there, too, from EV charging companies to AV sensor startups.

The schedule is chock full of mobility-focused sessions, including a presentation about how to use AI and data analytics to help address slower EV demand, a discussion led by Cox Automotive on the EV future, and opportunities around 5G.

And just a brief glance at our overflowing inboxes tells us we can expect autonomy-related announcements, at least one new EV charger debut, updates on cybersecurity software for the auto industry, a look at Sony Honda Mobility’s Afeela EV prototype, and much more.

We’ll also be listening for any discussions related to 

 under the next Trump administration, like threats of new tariffs, changes to federal 

, and nixing at least some parts of the Inflation Reduction Act.

“I’m sure those discussions will be going on in the background and maybe even in the foreground,” Sam Abuelsamid, a principal research analyst at Guidehouse Insights, told us. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now.”

There’s a lot happening in the AV space, from the prospect of the incoming Trump administration 

 a federal regulatory framework for self-driving vehicles that could speed their deployment to 

Jeremy Carlson, who leads autonomous driving research for S&P Global Mobility’s automotive team, told us he’ll be paying attention to the AV tech automotive suppliers have on display, since they’re generally working on products several years in advance and ahead of their automaker customers.

Another theme to watch: any updates around the capabilities of 

, including the Level 2+ and Level 3 systems many automakers are focused on.

“There’s a huge amount happening [with lower levels of autonomy], and that is a little less exciting because it’s a little less revolutionary,” Carlson said. “It is big-scale and it is relatively lucrative for automakers and the supply chain. A lot of those then lead us into things like connected services and updates for those vehicles over wi-fi or over the air, delivering new functionality.”

Abuelsamid has been to CES at least 10 times over the years, so he’s well-versed in the ins and outs of the show. This year, he expects a focus on the various ways that technology can improve the 

Examples might include in-cabin sensing (for example, tech that can detect whether a child is in the back seat), next-generation driver monitor systems that are getting increasingly better at detecting whether drivers are fully engaged, improved navigation systems, and 

“The user experience in the vehicle is maybe kind of the overarching theme,” he said.

The mobility tech we’ll be keeping an eye on at CES 2025

The in-vehicle user experience, automated driving, and improved navigation systems are just a few of the mobility tech trends Tech Brew will be watching at CES 2025.

From Wall Street to Detroit to Silicon Valley, all eyes will be on the Warner Brothers lot in Burbank, California, on October 10, when Tesla is slated to reveal its highly anticipated robotaxi.

The event could mark a major step forward for CEO Elon Musk’s efforts to turn the electric-vehicle maker into an AI and robotics company worthy of a $1 trillion-plus valuation. But given the 

 of deploying autonomous vehicles at scale—as well as Tesla’s own spotty track record on 

—it’s also sure to generate a lot of questions.

“It’s a big deal,” Ram Machness, chief business officer at radar technology company Arbe, told Tech Brew. “Everybody is looking at it.”

 including growing competition, recent financial results that underwhelmed Wall Street, and scrutiny into its self-driving vehicle tech. It also comes just before the company reports Q3 earnings on October 23.

The reveal is expected to have a significant impact on Tesla’s stock.

In a July research note following the news that Tesla was delaying the event from August to October, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote that they “believe a linchpin to Tesla reaching $1 trillion-plus valuation and ultimately higher over the next year is contingent on the AI/[Full Self-Driving] story materializing into a monetization path over the coming years.”

On the company’s Q2 earnings call, Musk reiterated his view that “the biggest differentiator for Tesla is autonomy.”

With all of that in mind, here are a few themes to watch for come October 10. (Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment.)

One of the things Machness and his peers in the AV sector will be watching for is whether Tesla continues to rely heavily on cameras as the sensors for its self-driving tech system.

 of many of its competitors, which use sensors like radars and lidar (light detection and ranging) in addition to cameras. Musk has called lidar a “crutch,” though it was 

 earlier this year that Tesla is actually a major customer of lidar company Luminar.

“All the players that tried, all the players today that are in the market, all the players that are planning to be in the market, all the players that were in the market and exited the market, are saying that cameras alone will not solve this problem,” Machness said. “[Tesla] did an amazing job with the camera. But you must have a different, independent sensor on top of the camera. I don’t know anyone that disputes it.”

Machness expects the event to be closely watched both by legacy automakers who are developing autonomous driving features for personal vehicles, as well as by robotaxi companies like Waymo and Cruise.

“Is it really going to be autonomous? Or how autonomous is autonomous? That’s one of the biggest questions that everybody is looking to answer,” he said.

Tesla calls its semi-autonomous vehicle system “Full Self-Driving,” but the technology does not, in fact, enable full self-driving; it requires supervision from the driver.

Leaf Jiang, founder of NODAR, which develops 3D vision systems for AVs, said he’ll be curious to see if Tesla takes similar creative license with how it defines what a robotaxi is.

“I think there’s a lot of folks that would be shocked to see an L4 vehicle coming out of Tesla, without any sort of indication that they’re close to that,” Jiang said, referring to the level of vehicle autonomy that does not require human supervision.

Wall Street already is pressing Musk on when its robotaxi will be ready to hit the road. During Q2 earnings, he said that 2025 “seems highly probable,” but Tesla is notorious for blowing deadlines.

And some investment analysts appear to be concerned that regulatory approvals could hamper the timing of the rollout. On the July call, analysts quizzed Musk about what type of approvals the company would need. There have been signals that the robotaxi could be built without a steering wheel or pedals, which would require Tesla to secure a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards exception—something that’s tripped up some of its competitors.

Musk claimed that regulatory approval would not be a “limiting factor,” but some analysts remain skeptical.

Whatever else is revealed, Machness and Jiang emphasized that it’s crucial for Tesla to demonstrate that its product is 100% safe, especially given some major setbacks both Tesla and some of its competitors in the AV sector recently have faced.

“It needs to be 100% safe. Not 95%. Not 96%. Not 97%,” Machness said. “That’s a tough bar to achieve. So, I think that’s what everybody on the autonomous side will be looking for.”

Correction 10/03/24: This piece has been updated to correct the date Tesla is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2024 earnings.

A coffee mug with the Tesla logo on it filled with a drink with a question mark in the milk

What to watch for during Tesla’s highly anticipated robotaxi reveal

“Everybody is looking at it,” one AV sector source says of Tesla’s October 10 event.

That’s one reason General Motors is integrating artificial intelligence into just about every aspect of its motorsports division.

Tech Brew recently got a peek behind the scenes of where the machine learning magic happens: GM’s Charlotte Technical Center in North Carolina. Jonathan Bolenbaugh, manager of data and analytics for GM Motorsports, gave us a virtual tour and explained how AI is changing the way the organization races.

It “took a leap of faith when we started the team,” he said. “Like, ‘Hey, we’re gonna use AI to change racing.’ And then people are like, ‘Why would we do that?’ Well, because it’s cool and it’s fun and I like winning races.”

Bolenbaugh—whose experience spans both racing and production vehicles—formed the data and analytics team two years ago.

The idea is to use technology to assist the teams that GM Motorsports supports across racing series like NASCAR, IndyCar, and IMSA.

Data scientists and engineers use machine learning to create models based on vehicle performance data, track conditions, and competitors’ behaviors to inform race strategy. AI also is used in real-time race analysis to help the team make decisions and improve outcomes.

“It’s literally hundreds of people per car to get that out on the track,” Bolenbaugh said. “This team was founded with the intent of using technology—specifically AI and [machine learning] and some statistical methods—to give those people the tools that they need to have the peak outcome every weekend.”

The command center at GM's Charlotte Technical Center where AI and machine learning are used on race day.

Some of the AI-powered tools may seem basic, like real-time audio transcription of conversations drivers have over the radio, but consider the challenge of getting an accurate transcript amid noisy racetrack conditions.

The team also uses image analysis to get insights into as many as tens of thousands of photos that might be captured during a typical NASCAR event, according to Bolenbaugh.

“All the categorization and derived information is available seconds later,” he said. To determine the size of a wheel, for example, a process that used to take minutes—literally using a ruler to calculate the diameter in a photo—now takes a matter of seconds.

The team employs machine learning to predict competitors’ behaviors, and then, throughout a weeklong design cycle, the team quickly makes performance-boosting tweaks to race cars.

A typical week kicks off with a Monday morning report card on how the previous weekend’s races went. By Tuesday, Bolenbaugh said, the team is already making changes to vehicle models. It all leads up to Sunday, when changes are deployed and the data and analytics team is on hand to support the race team.

“We’re having a pretty dynamic conversation while this race is running about, ‘Hey, we think that the tool is overestimating this parameter or underestimating this parameter,’ and then we can tweak that,” Bolenbaugh said.

He insisted that these tools complement the work of human engineers without replacing them.

“We’re doing these things to cover the basics so the race engineers can do the things that only the humans can do. Obviously, technology is advancing, but sitting on a pit box, making calls, understanding how that works out, that intuition and that subject matter expertise still very much matters,” he said. “It matters more than ever, because a lot of times people will take AI and ML tools and say, ‘Well, AI told me to do this, it’s gotta be right.’”

Logan McLeod, who heads up software engineering at GM Motorsports, in a presentation earlier this year spelled out the demanding nature of racing. The organization participates in over 130 races a year, supporting dozens of race team partners. AI advancements, he said, enable the team to be more efficient by freeing up resources that can be used elsewhere.

“Whether it’s in multi-physics simulation or model-based collaboration, AI represents an acceleration opportunity across everything we do in technology,” he said.

One of the goals is to improve results on the track. But it’s also to feed data, lessons, and new tech to the teams that design GM’s production vehicles. Automakers use motorsports to test out tech that may one day make their way into mass-market vehicles.

“This design, build, test, iterate cycle—we get to do that every week. And the learnings from that translate back into production cars,” Bolenbaugh said. “Retooling a plant costs a lot of money. We can retool here and try things out, and the things that work, we can send right back and make our on-the-road cars much better for our customers.”

Finish line checkered flag with binary code in each square

How GM is using AI to boost performance on the racetrack

Why use AI in racing? “Because it’s cool and it’s fun and I like winning races,” the data and analytics manager for GM Motorsports tells Tech Brew.

The romance genre has enemies to lovers, but the automotive industry has its own familiar trope: rivals to friendly rivals.

In one of the latest examples of competing automakers making nice, General Motors and Hyundai earlier this month announced plans to collaborate on several “key strategic areas,” per a joint news release.

The specific areas of collaboration were 

, though “codevelopment and production of passenger and commercial vehicles, internal combustion engines and clean energy, electric and hydrogen technologies,” were noted, and GM and Hyundai plan to look into combined sourcing of components and raw materials.

“It begs the question: What is the larger plan between these two companies?” Sam Fiorani, VP of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, told Tech Brew. “There are a lot of items that could be there for the picking between these two companies, and it could result in big changes for both companies.”

The automakers said the partnership aims to take advantage of both companies’ “scale and strengths to reduce costs and bring a wider range of vehicles and technologies to customers faster.”

“GM and Hyundai have complementary strengths and talented teams. Our goal is to unlock the scale and creativity of both companies to deliver even more competitive vehicles to customers faster and more efficiently,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in a statement.

Cost efficiencies are especially relevant to the auto industry as it navigates a tricky time in the EV transition. Some automakers are 

 amid slower demand and growing competitive pressures. Cost is a key factor, as development and production of new electrified vehicles requires massive investments even as automakers are struggling to turn profits on EVs.

“The current EV transition, where volumes are not where you would want them to be to make money, finding a partner to source batteries, potentially motors, and definitely software engineering—it makes a lot of sense, coinvesting in those products,” Fiorani said.

Despite the highly competitive nature of the industry, there’s a long history of rival automakers teaming up on specific initiatives.

 said they were using a long-standing partnership to support development of a fuel cell electric vehicle, or FCEV, powertrain system that both would use in their vehicles. In a news release, the automakers said that working together on FCEVs would help “drive down the costs of fuel cell technology.”

Speaking of fuel cells: GM and Honda have long worked together on various initiatives, including codeveloping and 

Earlier this year, Volkswagen and Rivian unveiled plans for a 

 under which VW would invest billions of dollars into a joint effort to develop software-defined vehicle platforms that both companies would use.

On Sept. 18, BMW, Ford, and Honda announced that operations had begun for a joint venture they 

 last year. The venture, ChargeScape, is a software platform that 

 a joint venture earlier this year to establish an EV charging network together, part of a bid to create more reliable, accessible charging infrastructure so that more 

 going electric. And Tesla is in the process of opening up its charging network to other brands.

Fiorani pointed to an example of a successful auto partnership: a long-standing alliance between Renault and Nissan.

Industry collaborations have “been hit or miss in the past, but when it works, it works really well,” he said. “And for decades, Renault and Nissan were saving billions of dollars by sourcing their parts together.”

Why Hyundai and GM are teaming up in latest auto industry partnership

The partnership aims to take advantage of both companies’ “scale and strengths to reduce costs,” according to the rival automakers.

US roadways could get a lot smarter in the coming years, if the Department of Transportation gets its way.

Last week, the DOT released a plan to implement vehicle-to-everything, or V2X, technologies nationwide. The strategy is part of the department’s 

 to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities.

This is an urgent mission: Some 40,000 people die in traffic crashes in the US each year, and the numbers have been trending upward in recent years.

Enter V2X, a technology that enables vehicles, wireless devices, and infrastructure to communicate with each other over a wireless network. Using V2X, vehicles could, for example, get alerts about inclement weather conditions, another vehicle veering outside its lane, or a crash ahead.

 It would also require automakers to continue investing in the connected and automated vehicle tech that the industry sees as a promising new revenue source.

In a statement, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said the tech “has the power to save lives and transform the way we travel,” and said DOT’s plan “will move us closer to nationwide adoption of this technology.”

The roadmap envisions deploying V2X on 20% of national highways by 2028. Between 2029 and 2031, DOT would like to see the tech implemented across 50% of highways and installed at 40% of intersections.

By 2036, the department wants V2X to be “fully deployed” on national highways and for at least 50 “interoperable, cybersecure deployments” to be up and running, according to a summary of the plan.

DOT envisions involvement from numerous stakeholders, including automakers, the FCC, local governments, and others.

Before the plan’s release, the Federal Highway Administration announced some $60 million in grants to support deployment of V2X technologies by recipients in Utah, Texas, and Arizona. Still, nationwide V2X deployment is sure to require many more resources—and past implementation proposals have faltered.

There are limited deployments of V2X already, including a 

 on a three-mile stretch of highway in Michigan.

, which, according to one government estimate, could prevent roughly 1,300 traffic fatalities each year. The auto industry also has expressed support for a nationwide V2X strategy.

The National Transportation Safety Board, which has advocated for V2X implementation for decades, is reviewing USDOT’s plan.

“This plan is a vital first step toward realizing the full life-saving potential of this technology, which we’ve supported for decades,” NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said. “V2X can reverse the crisis on our roads and fundamentally transform our nation’s transportation landscape.”

Road sign of a car icon and wifi symbol above.