Much like the slacker who doesn’t contribute to the group project, the US may drag down EV adoption globally, thanks to recent federal policy changes.
That’s according to BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook, which forecasts nearly 22 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales this year, a 25% YoY jump. The analysis attributes this year’s growth to greater availability of more affordable EV models and lower battery costs.
But looking ahead, BNEF’s projections are less optimistic. For the first time, the research group lowered its long- and short-term passenger EV adoption outlook, “largely due to the various policy changes in the US.”
BNEF now expects passenger EV sales in the US to increase from 1.6 million in 2025 to 4.1 million in 2030—14 million fewer than previously projected during that period.
“The roll-back of federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of the EV tax credit, and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards result in a notable decline in EV adoption in the US, impacting global adoption rates,” according to BNEF.
The changes: The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which President Donald Trump signed into law July 4, rolls back large chunks of the climate provisions in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Effective after the end of September, the new law eliminates a $7,500 tax credit on new EV purchases and a $4,000 credit for used EVs.
“Despite significant leaps in EV adoption globally, stable and comprehensive policy still matters in advancing it further,” Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of EVs at BloombergNEF, said in a statement. “Automakers that lose sight of the longer-term trend towards electrification—supported by falling battery prices and improving economics of EVs—risk being squeezed out of the major car markets.”
EV adoption could be further delayed, according to the report, depending on the pace of charging infrastructure buildout and whether California retains its ability to set its own emissions standards.
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Meanwhile, AlixPartners’ EV forecast for the US market this year “is down 46% from its forecast last year, to a 23% share, due mostly to the changed regulatory environment,” according to the consultancy’s latest global automotive outlook.
Already, signs are mounting that the EV market is cooling off. Cox Automotive’s forecast estimated that EV sales were down 6% YoY in June, and the firm revised downward (from 10% to 9%) its estimate of how much new-vehicle market share EVs would capture this year.
Falling behind: The reports underscore the degree to which China has pulled ahead of the rest of the world on electrification, with BNEF noting that China “is the only country where EVs are on average cheaper to buy than comparable ICE vehicles.” Last year, 69% of EVs sold around the world were made in China.
And nearly two-thirds of 2025’s projected EV sales are expected to come from China, with Europe and the US accounting for 17% and 7%, respectively, per BNEF.
“These sales, paired with an evolving policy landscape in the US, has put adoption in some emerging markets, like Thailand, higher than in the US, challenging the widely held assumption that EVs will start in wealthy countries before spreading further,” per the report.
Such competitive pressures necessitate “wholesale transformation” in the auto industry, AlixPartners concluded. That means being more decisive, embracing new technologies, introducing new operating models, and forgoing “deterministic strategies” and other old ways of doing business, according to Mark Wakefield, AlixPartners’ global automotive market lead.
“The companies have to be agile,” he said in a call with [reporters]. “And to do that, we’re finding that the AI and data layers are really critical.”