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Automakers have been developing fuel-cell vehicles for decades, but there still aren’t many on the road today, in part because green hydrogen is expensive and a reliable refueling network has yet to materialize. But recent research shows that could soon change.
By 2030, green hydrogen prices could fall to $2.50 per kilogram—a significant reduction from the $6 to $7 per kilogram it costs now—according to a recent report from ABI Research.
The Economic Viability of Green Hydrogen for Industry and Enterprises report also predicted that by 2040, green hydrogen prices could be $1.80 per kilogram, which would make it cheaper than other “polluting alternatives,” like gray hydrogen, which are currently more cost effective.
Gray hydrogen is created using natural gas, like methane, and produces carbon. Green hydrogen is created using renewable energy, and thus doesn’t produce any non-sustainable byproduct—but it’s more costly to produce.
ABI Research’s predictions are based on its beliefs that electrolyzers, which are used to create hydrogen, will become more efficient and cheaper themselves.
And there’s a lot riding on lower green hydrogen costs: ABI Research said that industries like steel and shipping switching to green hydrogen would be “fundamental to meeting sustainability commitments and net zero targets at the company, national, and regional levels.”
Though other research has labeled similar green hydrogen pricing estimates by 2030 optimistic, Whit Irvin, CEO of QHydrogen, told Tech Brew he thinks ABI Research’s predictions are very likely.
“There’s so much that happens so quickly,” Irvin said. “People are quick to forget that the majority of our technological world just happened in the last 150 years.”
What’s more, Irvin said he expects the progress that will allow for lower green hydrogen prices to come from innovation in the industry—not government subsidies. In August, the Biden administration announced $62 million in funding for 20 green hydrogen projects across the country. But during the second Trump administration, green hydrogen innovation is not likely to receive the same financial support.
“It’s going to be industry innovation and people working together to solve big problems that will [bring prices down],” Irvin told us.