The promise of cars that drive themselves has been just around the corner for many years now.
Self-driving vehicles still may not be mainstream, but 2024 saw incremental progress (with some noteworthy setbacks), from robotaxi companies expanding to new markets to more drivers being able to take their hands off while on highways, to driverless trucks delivering goods along predictable routes. Experts say more small steps will come in 2025.
“Autonomous vehicles are advancing fastest in controlled environments of various kinds,” Paul Miller, VP and principal analyst at Forrester, told Tech Brew. “We see them being deployed at scale in mining, in construction, in warehouses––and much, much, much less on public highways, for all sorts of obvious reasons.”
“We will get there,” he added. “But 2025 is just around the corner, so there’s not going to be a dramatic improvement then.”
Level up: Developments around the deployment of Level 4 robotaxis will be a key trend to watch, Jeremy Carlson, an associate director who leads autonomous driving research for S&P Global Mobility’s automotive team, told Tech Brew.
Of particular interest, he said, are Tesla’s plans to launch the “Cybercab,” a robotaxi product it unveiled in October. Tesla would need to conduct testing and obtain permits from government agencies to begin driving on public roads ahead of its planned 2026 debut.
Whether or not California regulators give Tesla the go-ahead will be a key test, Carlson said, given the state’s long-running leadership in regulating the AV sector.
The new year will likely bring additional robotaxi releases from companies like Waymo and Zoox. In 2024, Waymo notched several milestones, including reaching more than 150,000 paid riders per week across the markets where it has commercial operations.
“The organization and successful execution with input from all these stakeholders has seemed to be a very successful model for them, but they’re still only in a couple of cities,” Carlson said.
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Research firm IDTechEx projected that the global robotaxi market’s value will grow at a compound annual rate of 37% between 2025 and 2045.
Slow down: At the same time, experts expect automakers to potentially trim some of their investments in higher levels of autonomy due to the massive investments needed and an uncertain regulatory environment.
Instead, the sector could see continued focus on Level 2+ systems, which allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel but require their attention. These systems enable automakers to generate revenue while avoiding some of the trickier liability issues around more advanced autonomy.
“What happens if there is a car accident with an autonomous car? Who will be responsible? All these questions…have not yet been addressed by engineers,” Sofiane Benhelli, who heads up transportation and mobility solutions at French automotive supplier Dassault Systems, told us. “We have to address them as citizens.”
IDTechEx said it “now sees Level 2+ as a more significant avenue of development, with Level 3 likely to pick up in a few years’ time.”
Speaking of regulations: Perhaps one of the biggest themes in 2025 will be how plans to establish a federal regulatory framework for AVs will take shape during the next Trump administration. Such a move is expected to make it easier for companies to use driverless vehicles nationally.
“A permissive federal regulatory framework that enables Gatik, and other companies in the AV sector, to deliver the benefits of [AVs] across the US will immediately stimulate additional confidence across all key stakeholder groups, including investors, customers and consumers,” Sam Swanson, a spokesperson for driverless trucking company Gatik, told us via email.