An administration change in Washington could have big consequences across the startup scene in Silicon Valley.
While perhaps not the concern of the average voter, tech topics like an emergent regulatory regime around AI and funding of green tech projects will be on the ballot next month. A new research note from PitchBook attempts to break down what a win for each major political party could mean for different areas of startup funding.
The election has already drawn new political battle lines within the tech industry. Long a Democratic Party stronghold, some of Silicon Valley’s big names have endorsed Donald Trump in recent months, including Marc Andreessen, Elon Musk, and venture capitalist David Sacks, citing stances on tech like cryptocurrency.
Gridlock guaranteed: PitchBook’s report notes that it will likely be difficult even for a party that controls both houses of Congress to take big legislative swings outside of the budget reconciliation process, in which bills like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have passed with fewer votes than would otherwise be needed thanks to the bypass of the Senate filibuster.
Mixed control of the Oval Office and the two houses of Congress could leave more room for statehouses to fill the vacuum, the report said, as state laws already have on many AI-related issues amid stalled federal regulatory efforts.
Canceled order: Trump’s platform vows to repeal President Joe Biden’s sweeping executive order around AI, calling it “dangerous” in that it “imposes radical left-wing ideas” on the development of the technology. PitchBook Senior Analyst Brendan Burke wrote that Trump’s own AI executive order in 2019 “prioritized American leadership in AI technology,” rather than “establishing specific safety measures or regulatory frameworks.”
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The future of the FTC: One big hinge point mentioned in the report is whether the next president will maintain the current aggressive stance of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) toward tech mergers and acquisitions.
PitchBook’s analysts expect Vice President Kamala Harris would stay the course if elected, keeping Commissioner Lina Khan at the helm, though Harris hasn’t spelled out her intentions clearly, and it has been a topic of debate among some of her big-dollar backers. The report said the FTC’s leadership could have implications for acquisition prospects and valuations across healthcare, foodtech, ecommerce, and software-as-a-service (SaaS).
While PitchBook analysts believe a Republican administration would oust Khan and take a more lenient approach to FTC enforcement, Trump running mate JD Vance has praised Khan’s work, and increased antitrust action has garnered some bipartisan support.
Green money: PitchBook notes that Trump has promised “to rescind much of the clean energy support introduced by the Biden administration should [he] win the election.” Nevertheless, the firm does not expect a repeal of the IRA due to the “the broad nature of the act and bipartisan support for certain elements of it.” PitchBook expects Democrats to continue to support clean energy installation and expansion.